ROME — Donald Trump turned geopolitics on its head this month with his determination to do business with Vladimir Putin while pouring scorn on America’s allies.
But there is one country in the world where tense competition between the United States and Russia continues apace, keeping the Cold War vibe alive with no nod to rapprochement.
Libya has just had a training visit from a USAF B-52 bomber as U.S. generals try to tempt local leaders to eject the ever increasing number of Russian troops stationed in desert bases in the country.
The U.S. visit last month was aimed at winning over Gen. Khalifa Haftar, the military commander who runs the eastern half of the North African country and is allowing Russia to use it as a bridgehead to back regimes further south which are hostile to Washington.
RELATED
The February visit came after Haftar and his sons, Saddam and Khaled, paid a call to Russia’s close ally Belarus, a sign of ever closer ties with Moscow.
Jalel Harchaoui, an analyst at the RUSI think tank in London, said U.S. attempts to win over Haftar were being led by the Pentagon.
“The Biden administration had no real policy to peel him away from the Russians, and the Trump administration has had no time for Libya, so the Pentagon is conducting its own diplomacy here,” he said.
Visitors from U.S. Africa Command who held ground targeting exercises as two B-52H Stratofortress bombers flew overhead invited military personnel from Haftar’s forces as well as from Eastern Libya, which is run by a separate government in Tripoli.
The two sides of the country split in 2014, three years after the ousting for former leader Muamar Ghadaffi.
“Haftar tells the U.S. he would work with them but says Russia gives him air defenses and military training. The U.S. tells him it would give him more if only he would distance himself from Russia,” said Harchaoui.
After the U.S. visit, Russia’s deputy defense minister, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, was back in eastern Libya for another of his frequent visits.
“Meanwhile at Libya’s Brak al-Shati airbase, the number of Russians stationed there has risen from 300 to approximately 450 since November,” said Harchaoui.
Ben Fishman, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he was “very skeptical” about Haftar turning away from Russia.
“Those B-52s won’t change his mind, nor will attempts by the U.S. to unite the two militaries, since Haftar’s forces are a real mechanism while in the west local militias are more influential than the army,” he said.
Mohamed Eljarh at consultancy firm Libya Outlook was more optimistic, claiming Haftar’s son Saddam – who commands eastern Libya’s land forces – is seeking ties with the United States.
“There is a belief the Russians were playing a double game in Libya with both Haftar and Ghadaffi’s son, Saif Al-Islam. Saddam is leading efforts to be closer to the U.S. and visited the U.S. last year,” he said, adding, “The Russians are understandably concerned and want him to visit Moscow but that seems off the table for now.”
If Saddam engages with the U.S., it remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will reciprocate, said Umberto Profazio, an analyst at the IISS think tank.
“There is no sign of the Trump administration yet, and given its unorthodox view of Russia and wish to disengage with overseas theaters, we may see the U.S. providing leeway for the Russian presence in Libya,” he said.
Tom Kington is the Italy correspondent for Defense News.
