WARSAW, Poland — Drawing on lessons from the Iran war, a study shows how Russia could force Lithuania into capitulation in 90 days with no soldiers crossing the border.
Drafted by the Baltic Defense Initiative, a small think tank based in Vilnius, the scenario exposes specific vulnerabilities of the Lithuanian defense posture, with the aim to plug gaps as soon as possible.
Fast-forward almost two years into the future, when the effects of right-wing, anti-European movements taking power in Europe meld with the fallout of a prolonged Iran war dragging Washington down, the scenario goes.
“December 2027. Marine Le Pen withdraws France’s nuclear umbrella from all NATO allies,” the analysis posits, referring to the French far-right politician as president, undoing nuclear-sharing vows for Europe between France and the United Kingdom.
“The U.S. is 18 months drained into the Iran war with empty stocks,” the study continues. “At 11 a.m., Russia launches a devastating attack on Lithuania’s government with hypersonic missiles, followed by the launch of +170,000 Shahed drones over the next 60 days that completely flatten Vilnius — destroying every bridge, every power plant, every hospital, every water treatment facility in the country.”
The think tank says its scenario is constructed entirely from verified weapon system capabilities, observed production rates for military equipment such as drones, and documented global political trends.
“On Day 90, Moscow issues an ultimatum: all three Baltic states accept Russian occupation — or Riga and Tallinn are next,” the Baltic Defense Initiative report states.
Opinions among officials and analysts vary greatly when it comes to Russia’s appetite for attacking the Baltic nations, which are part of NATO. Even so, all eastern European nations have dialed up their defense spending in recent years to make themselves into formidable obstacles if it came to war.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, for its part, published an assessment earlier this year that said Russia was not expected to attack any NATO member states in the next two years, a testament, in part, to European efforts to quickly boost their defenses in the last few years.
Thiebaut Devergranne, the founder of the Baltic Defense Initiative and a former official with the General Secretariat for Defence and National Security (SGDSN), which reports to the French prime minister, said he identified a flaw in Lithuania’s constitution that should be addressed by the country’s authorities.
The constitution does not foresee a line of succession ensuring continuity of government after the speaker of the Seimas, the nation’s unicameral parliament, were to be incapacitated, Devergranne said. As a result, if a strike succeeds at neutralizing both Lithuania’s president and the speaker, the responsibility to act as the country’s next commander-in-chief could be unclear, he added.
“We think this should be addressed,” he wrote in an email.
The Baltic Defense Initiative has developed more than 200 defense-focused proposals for Lithuania, “built on France’s post-WW II deterrence model of sovereignty through strength,” according to the researcher.
Jaroslaw Adamowski is the Poland correspondent for Defense News.
