The US could have avoided almost 250,000 Covid-19 deaths if every state had adopted stricter mask and vaccine requirements seen in the Northeast during the height of the pandemic, according to a new study.
Researchers say that the country, which saw more than 1.1 million Covid deaths, could have been spared an estimated 118,000 to 248,000 more lives.
The research from University of Virginia public policy and economics professor Christopher J Ruhm, published Friday in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) Health Forum, analyzed mortality data between 2020 and 2022, comparing it to a baseline of 2017 through 2019.
“These study findings do not support the views of those opposing COVID-19 restrictions who erroneously believe the restrictions did not work,” Ruhm writes. “To the contrary, the package of policies implemented by some states probably saved many lives.”
“If all states had imposed restrictions similar to those used in the 10 most restrictive states, excess deaths would have been an estimated 10% to 21% lower than the 1.18 million that actually occurred during the 2-year analysis period,” according to the study.
“Conversely, the estimates suggest counterfactual increases of 13% to 17% if all states had restrictions similar to those in the 10 least-restrictive states.”
During the outset of the pandemic, red and blue states alike implemented closures of public space, masking requirements, and other pandemic measures, but jurisdictions quickly diverged as the pandemic wore on and the science around the coronavirus was politicized.
It led to striking disparities. By 2021, for example, California schools required teachers to be vaccinated or tested regularly in the classroom, while Florida threatened to withhold pay from schools with mask mandates.
Ruhm’s data captures similar differences.
The excess death rate in Massachusetts, the state with the tightest Covid restrictions during the study period, was less than one-fifth that of Mississippi, the state with the loosest rules.
The lessons from the early years of the pandemic will surely be on lawmakers’ minds, as the US grapples with an outbreak of bird flu on poultry and cattle farms as well as a summer surge in Covid cases, with wastewater data showing spikes across the country.
