Rifle Murder Share Fell as AR-15 Ownership Surged, Study Finds
A new data analysis says rifles made up a smaller share of firearm murders after the federal "assault weapons" ban expired than they did while it was law, even as AR-15 and AK-platform ownership climbed roughly tenfold.
Snapshot
The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) analyzed FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data spanning before, during, and after the 1994-2004 federal ban. Rifles' share of firearm murders rose slightly during the ban, then dropped afterward, even as estimated ownership of AR-15s and AK-47s surged. The timing matters: the Supreme Court hears arguments December 2 in two consolidated cases challenging local rifle bans.
Key points
- The numbers: CPRC reports rifles averaged 4.8% of firearm murders before the ban, 4.9% during it, and 3.6% after it expired, roughly a 27% relative decline, with the post-ban drop reported as statistically significant.
- Ownership surge, no corresponding rise: CPRC estimates AR-15s and AK-47s per 100 Americans grew from about one in 2004 to 10.2 by 2025, without a matching increase in rifles' murder share.
- Scope caveat: The FBI's rifle category covers all rifle types, not just AR-15s or AK-47s specifically, so the figures describe the broader category.
- Court stakes: The analysis lands ahead of oral arguments in Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins, where Cook County and Connecticut argue common ownership doesn't bar a ban.
- Not proof of causation: AmmoLand notes the figures don't prove the ban's expiration caused the decline, only that they undermine claims a ban was necessary to shrink rifles' share of murders.
Quick take
This is one organization's analysis, built on CPRC's own data pull and ownership estimates, and we haven't independently verified the methodology. Still, the contrast between surging rifle ownership and a falling murder share is worth watching as the justices weigh whether commonly owned semiautomatic rifles can be banned outright.
Read the full story: ammoland.com