Two new polls from The New York Times and Siena College show that President Joe Biden underperforms Vice President Kamala Harris against former president Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Virginia.
The surveys contradict Biden’s own claims. During his first “big boy” press conference in months last week during the conclusion of the NATO summit, Biden was asked whether he would step down if data showed Harris polled better against Trump than he did. Biden responded: “No one’s saying that.”
But the polls show that Harris outperforms Biden among young voters and non-white voters specifically.
The new surveys come after weeks of Democratic anxiety about the 81-year-old president’s ability to effectively run against Trump, following his disastrous debate performance. Numerous Democrats, including those who are currently fighting difficult re-election campaigns, have called on Biden to step aside to allow for Harris to take over at the top of the ticket.
The latest polls finished before the assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday that left him with minor injuries. Biden — and other Democrats — have openly denounced the shooting.
The polling shows Biden losing in Pennsylvania, where he was born and lived before his family relocated to Delaware, by three points while Harris holds a one-point deficit in the Keystone State against Trump. Trump shocked many when he became the first Republican presidential nominee since George H W Bush in 1988 to win Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes. Biden won back the state for Democrats in 2020 by 80,555 votes.
Democrats have handily won Virginia ever since Barack Obama became the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to carry the state in 2008. Biden won the state by double digits in 2020. The Times/Siena polls showed Biden has only a three-point lead in Virginia while Harris has a five-point lead.
Despite these troubles, Pennsylvania and Virginia’s incumbent Democratic senators, Bob Casey and Tim Kaine, respectively hold wide leads against their Republican challengers.
Casey, the son of a popular former governor who went from opposing abortion to campaigning on abortion rights, holds an eight-point lead against David McCormick, who was present at the shooting in Butler with Trump.
For his part, Kaine, a popular former governor who served as Hillary Clinton’s running mate in 2016, holds a whopping 17-point lead against Hung Cao, a retired Navy captain.
Along with performing well in swing states, Harris holds a 16-point lead among likely voters between the ages of 18 to 29 in Virginia and Pennsylvania against Trump, compared to Biden’s 12-point lead with the same demographic. Harris also holds a seven-point lead with voters between 30 and 44, compared to Biden’s two-point lead.
Harris also beats Trump among Black voters by 64 points, compared to Biden who beats Trump by 58 points.
The numbers come as Trump and his party descend on Milwaukee for the Republican National Convention, where Trump will accept the nomination for president and announce his running mate.
