Vice President Kamala Harris is making a bid for the White House with running mate Tim Walz after replacing President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket just a few months before Election Day.
A new poll suggests that Harris leads in almost all battleground states.
So how will Harris actually fare against Donald Trump and his vice-presidential pick, JD Vance, this November?
Harris now has a 2.7-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight.
Republicans are attempting to downplay Harris’s growing lead as a honeymoon phase, but it’s clear that the Democratic candidate has maintained her momentum since entering the presidential race. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls, though the race remains tight.
In the seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the war is still being waged between Democrat and Republican campaigns.
Fresh research from the Cook Political Report show that Harris has a lead in six out of seven states, with Trump holding strong in Nevada.
The poll shows Harris’s strongest lead in Arizona, where Biden won by just 0.4 per cent in 2020.
This is a substantial swing from the same polls in May, with a Trump-Biden matchup, where Trump led in six states and tied in Wisconsin.
Yet polling in swing states continues to show variation from pollster to pollster, with a YouGov/CBS poll conducted up to the same date (August 2) suggesting that neither candidate had a significant lead in any of the battlegrounds.
Overall, battleground polls have consistently shown that Harris has picked up momentum from her predecessor’s trailing support, and is on-track to lead Trump in some states.
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The latest YouGov/Economist poll (August 11 to 13) shows that Harris’s lead has remained stable since introducing Tim Walz onto the Democratic ticket, with no obvious boost against Trump.
Both candidates saw a +1 point increase from the same poll a week earlier, with Harris now at 46 percent and Trump at 44 percent.
The Independent voters are still largely split on the two candidates, with 36 percent planning to vote Harris and 37 percent Trump.
There has been significant variation among national polls on how Independent voters are leaning, since these voters are by nature a wide-ranging group. It’s clear that neither candidate has emerged as the obvious favorite just yet.
Much of the latest New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted as Walz joined Harris on the campaign trail, and shows the vice president with a four-point lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, a substantial shift from Biden’s trajectory in the swing states.
Demographics
Trump’s key supporters remain male voters, the 45-64 age group, and white voters with no college education. But in the last group, Trump appears to have lost some of his leverage over Harris when compared to Biden.
Harris polls best with young voters, female voters, and Black voters, among whom Harris has a +68 point lead.
Though Harris appears to be making significant headway in both national and battleground polls, one challenge that her campaign continues to face is a possible “personality gap.”
A previous NYT/Siena poll showed that while Harris polled stronger than Trump on several characteristics — intelligence, presidential temperament, and caring about “people like you” — respondents were still far more likely to view Trump as a stronger leader.
And as Harris-Walz campaigned in Michigan, a Redfield and Wilton/Telegraph poll told a confusing story. It showed battleground voters align more with Democratic policy positions on issues like the economy and policing, but nonetheless “trust Trump more” than Harris on the same issues.
As Harris has more time to cement her position as the Democratic presidential candidate, the gap between party alignment and candidate favor may narrow, since Trump has had some eight years to broadcast his policy positions to voters.
Vice presidential polling
Given the unprecidented turmoil in the presidential race this summer, it’s safe to say that plenty could change in between the current polls and the November ballots.
While it’s too soon for the polls to reveal how much the Walz pick will swing voters’ choices, the response has been generally positive. Walz’s approval rating is +5 overall, according to a Morning Consult poll from Aug 9 – 11.
The choice of JD Vance as Trump’s running mate, however, has proven divisive.
A poll in late July revealed that Vance has the worst approval rating of any vice presidential nominee in history. While Democrats are staunchly against the choice, Republicans are split on whether the Hillbilly Elegy author was a good pick for Trump’s running mate, with a third of non-MAGA Republicans saying they were not yet sure.
Meanwhile, previous polling shows that Walz has a good track record when it comes to approval ratings, and the benefit of a lengthy political career. However, he is not yet well-known to much of the national electorate, when compared to other VP hopefuls.
