PARIS — The European Union’s brand new defense commissioner laid out his priorities for the 27-nation bloc in coming years, including keeping military aid flowing to Ukraine and arming up to prepare for possible Russian aggression against EU member states.
Russia is the greatest military threat to the EU and will remain so for “quite a period of time,” Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius told the European Parliament security and defense subcommittee on Thursday following his appointment this month. The former prime minister of Lithuania is the first to fill the newly created role within the EU’s executive body.
Kubilius is preparing a defense white paper to be published in his first 90 days that “should define the measures which we need to implement in the European Union in order for us to be ready for most extreme military contingencies,” including a Russian threat against EU or NATO members.
Intelligence services from countries including Germany and NATO representatives indicate Russia may be ready for “some kind of military aggression against us” before 2030, the commissioner said. Russia on a war economy footing is now able to produce more military equipment in six months than the German Army has in stock, he said.
The EU faces a longer-term challenge due to China’s rise, which is refocusing American attention and may prompt the U.S. to reduce its European presence. The EU has to take into account its dependency on the U.S. for military force and technology, Kubilius said.
Europe still has “quite big capability gaps,” lagging in conventional weapons and big defense projects, and needs to consider how to move forward on “strategic enablers,” Kubilius told lawmakers. He didn’t provide details, though defense analysts have pointed to strategic airlift, space-based intelligence and early airborne warning as areas where Europe depends on the U.S.
The European community faces a defense crisis for the first time in its history, and the commissioner said he hopes the bloc will come out stronger.
Kubilius called on the EU attitude towards defense development to move from incrementalism to a “Big Bang approach,” with the three major topics being Ukraine, ramping up Europe’s own production and readiness, and financing defense.
Failure to support Ukraine means “extreme military contingencies or possibility of Russian aggression is coming even earlier and may be more extreme,” Kubilius said. Europe is currently losing a “war of narratives” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is able to spread a message that Ukraine can’t win.
The EU needs clear plans with financial backing to aid Ukraine, signaling to Putin that the bloc will stand by the embattled country for a long time. That should equally be the message to Washington, rather than waiting to see what the new U.S. administration will do, Kubilius said.
He said North Koreans are learning to fight in Ukraine, and allies showing weakness there may impact South Korea as well as the Chinese position. The U.S. abandoning Ukraine would be “not a very strategically wise message,” as China is watching and would conclude the West is weak and they can target Taiwan.
“When we’re talking about Ukraine, we can see very clearly that we’re facing the whole axis of authoritarian regimes,” Kubilius said. “Everything is very much interconnected, and that’s what we need to see, really, as a threat.”
The commissioner said democracies should be united, and for example avoid an EU-U.S. trade war which “Putin would be very happy to see.”
NATO is working on capability targets for 2044, and the EU should adopt those, but aim to implement them by 2030, according to Kubilius. “We cannot ask Putin, can he postpone his plans of aggression until we shall be ready. Times are very limited.”
He said EU knowledge of the NATO targets is surprisingly “very limited,” and the commissioner hopes dialogue with the alliance will provide more insight. The dispute between Cyprus and Turkey prevents the sharing of classified information between both organizations, according to analysts.
Kubilius said there is a need to create more clear European structures within NATO as part of developing a European defense pillar.
The EU can provide added value by pooling demand as well as financing, which is what the defense industry is waiting for, according to the commissioner. The EU’s next multi-annual financial framework will include more money for defense, but will only come in 2028, and additional funds are needed before then, according to Kubilius.
The bloc is looking at options to raise €500 billion for defense in the next 10 years, a “sensitive topic, especially when in some countries there are elections and so on.” Kubilius said the issue of defense bonds is “very, very sensitive,” as the understanding is they would be guaranteed by the EU budget, similar to the Covid-19 pandemic bonds.
Beyond creating a common defense market with joint procurement and production, the EU also simply needs more kit, according to the commissioner.
“We need to understand that aggression you can stop not with the best processes in your market, but with a number of artillery pieces, with a number of tanks, and so on.”
Eight EU members spend less than the NATO target of 2% of GDP on defense, including Spain, Italy and Belgium. If those would lift spending to the target, that would already be €60 billion more for defense, according to Kubilius. A hypothetical NATO target of 3% would translate into €200 billion of additional European spending, the commissioner told the subcommittee.
The initial evaluation of the costs for a European air shield, a possible defense project of common European interest, is around €500 billion, according to Kubilius. The EU will need to look how an air-defense initiative led by Germany as well French-Italian and Polish-Greek plans can be combined into one package, the commissioner said.
“We need to be realistic what we can do,” Kubilius said. “But of course all of us, we see from Ukraine, air defense really is problematic.”
Rudy Ruitenberg is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. He started his career at Bloomberg News and has experience reporting on technology, commodity markets and politics.
