Donald Trump, a bullet, and the fine red line that lies between democracy and violent chaos

The blood on Donald Trump’s face was a shocking and vivid reminder of the fine red line that lies between democracy and violent chaos in even the world’s most powerful country.

The gunman’s bullet struck the former president’s right ear before Secret Service agents rushed to the stage and hauled him down.

And now, the image that emerged of him injured, fist raised in defiance, the stars and stripes flying above, may help to propel him back into the White House.

Had it struck him just an inch away from where it did, the shot could have led to Trump’s death, sparking a very real chance of America – bitterly divided, with a heavily armed population – sliding into widespread violence, insurrection, and possibly even a second civil war.

The moment of danger for the United States came on a blisteringly hot late afternoon in Pennsylvania, where a crowd of tens of thousands had waited for hours at the Butler Farm showground for Trump to arrive. With little shade available, medics moved among the crowd as elderly rallygoers suffered under the blazing sun and Maga caps were taken off for heads to be sponged.

Any torpor turned into messianic fervour when Trump got onto the stage, settling quickly into the vaudeville pattern of his rallies. The faithful cheered at his boasts, booed at mentions of Joe Biden, and exclaimed in ire when he spoke of a stolen election and attempts to silence him with “fake” criminal charges.

Then came the shots, muted cracks one after the other, at least eight times. Those of us who have covered violence in conflict zones and at volatile gatherings hit by gunfire are familiar with what unfolded – the initial incomprehension, a brief stillness, and then an eruption of confused fear, shouts and screams.

“The first thing I thought to myself was ‘America’s under attack.’ I grabbed the hands of a couple of people I didn’t even know, and we said the Lord’s Prayer,” said Corey Check, a local activist and Republican committee member.

Ed White, who had gone to the rally with his wife and son, feared the worst: “I thought they had come to kill us all. I was scared, really scared, for my family. Then I saw a man who was injured; he looked in a bad way. What’s happened is terrible, terrible.”

The gunman, identified hours later by the FBI as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, had opened fire with his semi-automatic AR-15 assault rifle from a corrugated roof around 150 yards from the podium, astonishingly close to Trump.

To put this in context, that is the distance at which army recruits are expected to hit human silhouettes in basic training – that’s how exposed the former president was to his attacker.

How did he get so near? Was he acting alone? The FBI special agent in charge, Kevin Rojek, said later that it was “surprising” that the gunman had been able to target the stage, adding that procedures were being reviewed.

Some people at the rally said they had actually spotted the gunman and tried to alert the Secret Service prior to him opening fire.

“We’re pointing at the guy army crawling, bear-crawling, up the roof. We could clearly see him with a rifle,” a man named Greg told the BBC. “I’m standing there pointing at him for two or three minutes. Secret Service is looking at us from the top of the barn. I’m pointing at the roof, and the next thing you know, five shots ring out.”

Several shots could be heard after Trump, hand clasped over his injured ear, was pushed down onto the ground. The shooter killed one man and critically injured two others, one of whom was said to have been standing behind the former president.

Secret Service counter-assault teams, codenamed “Hawkeye”, and counter-sniper teams, codenamed “Hercules”, were deployed at the event. It is their job, in such missions, to detect and eliminate, allowing agents to shield and take away those under their protection.

There is video footage of a Secret Service sniper appearing to notice the gunman. This is followed by a slight body movement upwards as he takes a shot. That is how the threat is said to have been taken out. One of the sniper team is heard to declare: “Shooter’s down, we’re good to move.” A young man, longish-haired, lay dead on the tin sheeting of the roof of a nearby building, his head, face and grey T-shirt covered in blood.

The close protection team had a fraction of a second to pull down the former president. It was fortunate that the shooting came from only one direction. My colleagues and I have seen, in Iraq and Afghanistan, triangulated shooting from multiple locations into a crowd, with no apparently safe path out. A former Royal Marines SBS sergeant, who worked on close protection for British prime ministers in combat zones, said: “That was a bonus – even when one hears the suspect has been neutralised, you’ve got to worry there would be contact from other points.”

Having helped to save Trump’s life, the Secret Service agents still had to get him out. “Let’s go, let’s move,” one said as they pulled him up, his Maga cap knocked off his dishevelled head.

“Hold up, your head is bloody,” said another agent, his voice carrying through the microphone that the former president had been using to talk about the election victory to come.

“Let me get my shoes, my shoes,” muttered Trump as they pulled him along. At the edge of the stage, he forced them to stop. “Wait, wait,” he said.

Struggling upright, he pumped his fist while urging his supporters to “Fight, fight, fight.” The crowd shouted back, “USA, USA, USA,” but many were distracted as they sought to get away from the carnage.

Trump was satisfied, moving with his security detail into a waiting bulletproof limousine. Having seen him off, the agents adjusted their dark suits, dark glasses and ties, and turned to face the crowd with a touch of sangfroid.

The crowd were told by the police to leave, and they started to do so, shuffling along. There were some expressions of anger.

“There’ll be payback,” said a supporter wearing a Trump T-shirt, jabbing his hand in the air.

Social media was alive within minutes, with tales of plots.

The notorious far-right conspiracy theorist Alex Jones live-streamed posts that were viewed millions of times, claiming that the “deep state” had been involved. Other posts included wild QAnon conspiracy theories baselessly suggesting that prominent Democrats and Republicans had allegedly colluded with the CIA to carry out the assassination attempt.

It has since emerged that Crooks, the young man named as the killer, was registered as a Republican in Pennsylvania, according to the state’s voter records. Social media websites have begun to show photos of him wearing “Demolitia” (”Demolition Ranch”) T-shirts – popular with gun enthusiasts, some from the hard-right, and survivalists.

What drove Crooks to try to assassinate Trump is likely to become clearer over the coming days.

But for many Maga supporters, the gunman’s Republican registration and “Demolitia” attire have simply fuelled the “deep state” conspiracy theories.

This, they say, is a reprise of the “grassy knoll”, the way Lee Harvey Oswald was framed as a “patsy” in the assassination of John F Kennedy. “Don’t even pretend it’s one man, we’re coming for those responsible,” said one hard-right blogger.

What happened in Pennsylvania was a very close call. America faces fragile days ahead on the turbulent path to the election.

Now, a peaceful endgame looks increasingly doubtful, with accusations and recriminations only likely to get more vitriolic after the day that Donald Trump faced assassination.